The Next Guyana is Up for Grabs
In the world of energy, few stories rival the meteoric rise of Guyana's offshore oil sector. Guyana has emerged as a global energy powerhouse since ExxonMobil's landmark discovery in 2015. This development, centered on the vast Stabroek Block, has not only reshaped Guyana's economy but also bolstered ExxonMobil's position as a leading oil major. As the industry looks to the future, replicating such success comes with steep challenges. Here, we'll recap Guyana's journey, highlight its inherent complexities and risks, and propose an innovative additional option for those seeking returns of “the next Guyana”: allocating a portion of cash reserves and buyback funds to a simple buy-and-hold Bitcoin strategy. This approach could deliver equivalent or superior returns with far less operational burden, solving key monetary and stability issues in traditional oil and gas while preserving flexibility for core business needs.
Guyana's Triumph: A High-Stakes Blueprint for Growth
Guyana's oil journey started in 1999 with a production-sharing agreement (PSA) granting ExxonMobil rights to the 6.6-million-acre Stabroek Block. Serious exploration began around 2008-2010 via seismic surveys, culminating in the Liza-1 discovery in May 2015 - one of the decade's largest finds. Over 46 subsequent discoveries by mid-2025 have unlocked an estimated 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent (boe), valued at nearly $1 trillion at $80 per barrel.
Development has progressed in phases with floating production vessels:
Liza Phase 1 (FID 2017, first oil 2019)
Liza Phase 2 (FID 2019, first oil 2022)
Payara (FID 2020, first oil 2023)
Yellowtail (FID 2022, expected late 2025)
Uaru (FID 2023, targeted 2026)
Whiptail (FID 2024, slated 2027)
Hammerhead and others projected for the late 2020s
Led by ExxonMobil (45% operator), Chevron (30% via Hess acquisition in July 2025), and CNOOC (25%), this has propelled production from ~110,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 664,000 bpd mid-year 2025. Forecasts see 1.2-1.3 million bpd by 2027 and up to 2.3 million bpd by 2030.
Financially, the consortium has invested ~$40 billion to date. Breakeven costs hover at $30-35 per barrel. Returns are impressive: 2024 consortium profits hit $10.4 billion (ExxonMobil's share: $4.73 billion, ~14% of its $33.46 billion total earnings). Cumulative profits for ExxonMobil since 2019 exceed $15 billion, with projections of ~$184 billion more over the asset's decades-long life under PSA terms (2% royalty, 75% cost recovery, 50/50 profit split). Guyana has pocketed over $6.2 billion so far, eyeing $10 billion annually by the late 2020s.
This has boosted ExxonMobil’s performance: enhancing production, fueling Q2 2025 earnings of $7.1 billion, stabilizing market cap at ~$480 billion as of August 1, 2025, and unlocking $20 billion in added earnings potential by 2030.
The Hidden Costs: Time, Effort, and Multifaceted Risks
While Guyana's rewards are undeniable, the path demands immense time and effort. From initial PSA in 1999 to first oil in 2019 spanned two decades of exploration, seismic work, drilling, and regulatory navigation. Each phase requires years of planning, billions in upfront capital, and ongoing infrastructure builds - like subsea systems and a $1 billion gas pipeline.
The actual costs are substantial and multifaceted. To date, the consortium has committed approximately $40 billion in capital expenditures (capex), including exploration costs (seismic surveys and drilling over 100 wells, totaling billions), development costs (e.g., $9 billion for Payara's FPSO, wells, and tie-backs; $12.7 billion each for Uaru and Whiptail), and infrastructure (pipelines and support facilities). Operating expenses (opex) add ongoing burdens, with breakeven costs at $30-35 per barrel translating to annual opex in the billions as production scales - currently around $5-7 per barrel for maintenance, labor, and logistics. Future phases could push total capex beyond $100 billion over the asset's life, plus decommissioning costs estimated at hundreds of millions per phase (e.g., removing FPSOs and sealing wells). These figures exclude opportunity costs, such as capital tied up for years before returns materialize.
Risks abound, amplifying the challenge:
Operational and Safety: Deepwater drilling may incur spills, equipment failures, and worker hazards. Gas flaring and potential environmental impacts draw social and regulatory scrutiny.
Geopolitical: Venezuela's claim to the Essequibo region fuels ongoing tensions, including 2025 naval posturing that could disrupt operations.
Legal and Regulatory: The 2025 Hess-Chevron arbitration, resolved in Chevron's favor on July 18, underscored partnership disputes. Evolving regulations, PSA renegotiations, or climate policies could impose new taxes or restrictions.
Economic and Market: Volatility in oil prices, interest rates, financing, or other macroeconomic disruptions or black swans pose long-term threats outside of any operator’s direct control.
These factors require constant vigilance, tying up resources and exposing ExxonMobil to uncertainties that could erode profits or delay timelines.
An Additional Path: Bitcoin Allocation Complements the Traditional Portfolio
Imagine achieving Guyana-like performance without the decades of exploration, billions in sunk costs, or layered risks. By redirecting a portion of its ~$16 billion cash reserves (as of Q2 2025) and annual $20 billion buyback program to a straightforward buy-and-hold Bitcoin strategy, ExxonMobil could harness a neutral treasury reserve asset that addresses monetary instabilities (like inflation eroding cash value) and operational volatilities inherent in oil development. This complements, rather than replaces, core oil and gas operations, utilizing otherwise static cash or funds earmarked for buybacks.
Consider this phased approach, starting conservatively and scaling:
Initial Allocation: Deploy 10% of cash reserves (~$1.6 billion) in 2025 as a one-time buy.
Ongoing Investments: Redirect 50% of annual buybacks ($10 billion/year, or ~$2.5 billion quarterly) to Bitcoin purchases, increasing this portion over time as confidence builds.
Assuming a conservative 21% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Bitcoin - well below its historical ~66% from 2015 to mid-2025 - over a 15-year horizon, the math is compelling. Based on financial modeling with quarterly compounding and purchases:
Cumulative investment: ~$152 billion ($1.6 billion initial + $10 billion/year for 15 years).
Projected future value: ~$895 billion.
Net dollar gain: ~$743 billion.
Even at half the allocation ($5 billion/year redirected, or $1.25 billion quarterly), gains would still exceed $396 billion while requiring minimal effort beyond periodic purchases. By the end of a 10-year period, this strategy would result in ExxonMobil holding approximately 395,000 Bitcoin. Bitcoin's fixed supply and decentralized nature provide a store of value, countering fiat currency devaluation and offering liquidity for quick access - unlike locked-in infrastructure. The conclusion: a simple buy-and-hold strategy for Bitcoin using excess cash can more than double earnings from even the most attractive oil field in the world in half the time, with less risk. It really is that simple, but moving beyond acceptance of the idea to action requires courage. If not ExxonMobil, any competitor can choose at any time to adopt the equivalent of two Guyanas’ worth of profit over the next 15 years to outperform those who reject the idea given the available cash flow. This doesn’t even begin to comprehend the more advanced Bitcoin Treasury Company strategies being deployed by the likes of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which led to a $10 billion net income for Q2 2025, ~$3 billion greater than ExxonMobil’s.
Why This Elevates Strategy
Incorporating Bitcoin enhances core strengths. By retaining ~70% of cash ($11 billion) and half the buybacks ($10 billion/year), ExxonMobil stays primed for M&A or organic expansion to sustain production and for share repurchases to bolster stock price. This puts idle cash to work, transforming it into a high-growth asset that amplifies shareholder returns without diluting hard-earned profits.
In essence, Bitcoin solves traditional oil challenges: It bypasses geopolitical entanglements, slashes development timelines, eliminates safety and environmental liabilities, and shields against regulatory shifts. For a company like ExxonMobil, already generating robust free cash flow ($5.4 billion in Q2 2025), this diversification creates a resilient portfolio. Shareholders benefit from compounded growth that could rival or surpass frontier oil plays, all while maintaining focus on energy expertise.
Looking Ahead: A Balanced Portfolio for the Future
Guyana remains a crown jewel, but its blueprint reveals the timeline, complexity, and cost of traditional exploration. By embracing Bitcoin as a treasury tool, ExxonMobil (or any company) could secure "the next Guyana" - delivering transformative returns with simplicity and stability. Ultimately, the stark differences couldn't be more profound - Guyana demands over $40 billion invested to date (potentially exceeding $100 billion lifetime), decades of painstaking development from discovery to peak production, and relentless exposure to operational hazards, geopolitical conflicts, legal battles, and market volatility, yielding ~$184 billion in projected future profits for ExxonMobil; in contrast, a Bitcoin allocation requires zero additional costs beyond reallocating static cash or buyback funds, starts generating compounded returns immediately with no operational effort, carries none of those multifaceted risks, and could deliver ~$743 billion in net gains over just 15 years, proving a far superior path to amplifying shareholder value without the exhaustive burdens of frontier oil. To be clear, Bitcoin is an addition to the toolkit and not a wholesale replacement - the world still needs oil and gas to support living standards. But by adopting Bitcoin, companies can strengthen their position and take the time and discretion needed to execute successfully, improve their core portfolio, and identify the next frontier play or strategic portfolio addition.
Mathieu Agee
Founder, O21 Solutions
